Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Happy Birthday, Simpson Family!

The longest running American sitcom and cartoon turns 19 today. The Simpsons entered syndication on December 17, 1989 after appearing on the Tracy Ullman Show. There have been over 400 episodes and the animated sitcom has served as inspiration for numerous other shows. As a kid who wasn't allowed to watch early episodes of The Simpsons, I appreciated it more than others as a teenager. As an adult, I still laugh at the wit displayed in this cartoon. So take 30 minutes, kick back and watch an episode of the Simpsons today.

Sorry Jill, Sorry Phil, These Seats are Taken.

Last week I wrote a post about the three Hoosiers who were being considered for cabinet-level posts in the Obama Administration. Since then, two of those people were moved off the list.

Former Congressman Phil Sharp was passed over for Energy Secretary when President-elect Barack Obama chose Dr. Steven Chu to be his Secretary of Energy. From Reuters:

(Dr.) Chu is director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and shared the 1997 Nobel Prize in physics. He was an early advocate for scientific solutions to climate change.


Likewise, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson missed out on becoming the next leader of the USDA, with Obama picking former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack for that role. Vilsack is something of a surprise considering he told the media he wasn't being considered for "any position" in an Obama government. Sustainable and Organic Agriculture groups oppose the Vilsack nomination because they believe he is too close to the biotech industry and Big Agra. From Reuters:

If confirmed by the Senate, Vilsack, 58, would be the first Iowan to lead the Agriculture Department since Henry Wallace during the Depression era. Wallace, an editor, economist and developer of hybrid corn, had a seminal role in the creation of the U.S. farm support system still in use.


Just to share some interesting trivia, Henry Wallace was not only Roosevelt's USDA chief, but also his Vice President from 1941-1945. Wallace didn't play well with other members of the Roosevelt cabinet, and in the 1944 campaign he was removed from the ticket and replaced by Harry Truman, whom Wallace would run against as the Progressive Party's candidate for president in 1948. I doubt Tom Vilsack will repeat that history.

Long Thompson and Sharp may still find positions within USDA and Energy, but former Congressman Tim Roemer is now the only Hoosier likely to get a cabinet-level post. My money is still on the Director of National Intelligence spot. What say you?

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Indianapolis Buys Japanese Car Fleet

Most of us have heard by now of Mayor Ballard's decision to buy a fleet of vehicles from a Japanese company instead of an American one.

Mayor Greg Ballard's administration bought 85 hybrid Camry sedans for $25,770 each to use as unmarked nonpursuit police cars for detectives and administrators, The Star reported Thursday, noting Penske Chevrolet protested when the city refused lower-priced Chevrolet Malibu hybrids.


Penske Chevrolet is clearly upset with the decision because they lost the sale. Andy Mohr's Toyota dealership is very happy with the decision. Labor leaders like Bill Matthews are siding with Penske.

"We're going to have layoffs before Christmas because sales of the Malibu have gone down," said Bill Matthews, bargaining chairman of United Auto Workers Local 23. "The mayor overpaid for the Camrys and should have bought Malibus to support workers in Indianapolis, but he chose not to do it.''


The purchase couldn't have come at a worse time for the American car industry. The Big 3 are in Washington begging for a bailout and there are millions of jobs on the line. GM and Chrysler have warned that they don't have enough cash to operate through the end of the year. Ford isn't in much better shape.

Indiana is particularly vulnerable to a collapse of the domestic auto industry. Too many people think of the industry in terms of where the car is assembled, which is mostly in Michigan. But Indiana has the 5th highest number of workers of workers dedicated to car/parts manufacturing. People like John Lancaster and his employees:

"People don't realize the importance of our industry," said Lancaster, a metallurgical engineer who heads the General Motors aluminum foundry in Bedford, about 25 miles south of Bloomington.

Lancaster said GM Bedford employed about 1,500 workers two decades ago. Today, the 517 workers in the Southern Indiana plant pour 700,000 pounds of aluminum a day, creating 11,000 transmission casings for almost every GM vehicle made in North America.

Reforms over the years have streamlined operations in the 1 million-square-foot plant.

What GM Bedford now needs is what GM needs, Lancaster said -- cash.

His plant is completing the first year of a $114 million, multi-year modernization that is part of GM's move to fuel-efficient six-speed transmissions.

"We've had to slow down all that spending," Lancaster said.

If taxpayers provide an infusion, he counts on getting the cash for the next round of equipment.


And if taxpayers don't provide that infusion, it is likely that GM will go under, and all the jobs associated with it will disappear. Tens of thousands more Hoosiers will join the unemployment lines, and Mitch Daniels will regret getting reelected.

Which brings us back to Ballard's folly. Parts for the Chevy Malibu are built in Indianapolis and in surrounding cities. Ballard had an obligation not just to save a few theoretical pennies on fuel economy, but to support local jobs.

I know there can be a realistic discussion of what constitutes "American" these days. Under NAFTA, we have GM cars whose parts are made in Mexico and assembled in Canada, and they classify as an American car. Toyotas parts are made in the US and assembled in the US for the most part (Ballard's Camrys are built in Kentucky), and they are still called foreign.

But I think that debate is one for another day, when a large and important employer in our state is not on the brink of disaster.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Three Hoosiers on Obama's Cabinet Short-List

According to multiple sources, there are three former members of Congress from Indiana still under consideration for cabinet-level jobs in the Obama Administration. One of them is very likely to get a post, while the other two are longer shots.

Jill Long Thompson, the former Congresswoman from Northeastern Indiana and 2008 Indiana gubernatorial candidate. She has been mentioned as a possible candidate for Agriculture Secretary.

Phil Sharp, the former 10-term Congressman from the Muncie area. Sharp made energy a focus during his years and has since worked on energy issues at Resources for the Future.

Former Congressman Tim Roemer from northern Indiana has been mentioned as potential CIA chief or Director of National Intelligence. He was one of Obama's national security advisers throughout the campaign.


Of the three, I think Roemer is the most likely appointment. He was a strong surrogate for Obama in the primaries and was even mentioned as a possible running mate. He served on the 9/11 Commission and essentially helped create today's intelligence infrastructure. I think it's much more likely that he would get the DNI job over CIA, as the latter will likely be filled by a career spy.

Phil Sharp is a brilliant guy, pro-science and an expert on energy matters. I don't think it will be him, but at the same time I wouldn't be to surprised.

I think Jill Long Thompson would do a fine job, but I think she is least likely among the three to get an appointment. It is very possible that she will be the number 2 or 3 in the department.

What say you?

Message to Pat and Mitch: (Finally) End Prohibition!

The good folks at WISH TV remind us that today marks the 75th anniversary of the end of Prohibition. They also remind us that the remnants of Prohibition are still alive and well in Indiana:

From 1920 until 1933, prohibition kept Hoosiers and others throughout the nation from making or buying most alcohol. When prohibition ended states were allowed to enact their own alcohol laws.

"We're talking about, frankly, ancient history," said Grant Monahan, Indiana Retail Council.

Monahan and the Indiana Retail Council don't like the fact that Indiana law now prohibits drug, grocery and convenience stores from selling alcohol on Sundays.


If you asked any Hoosier who supported the ban on Sunday sales in the 1960's why they supported it, the reason would likely be because of religious reasons. Today, though, it has a lot more to do with profit and politics. Case in point, the response from the package liquor store lobby.

"This is just the latest proposal from the grocery, drug and gas station lobby to deregulate the sale of alcohol in our state to increase their profits. That's what it's all about," said John Livengood, Indiana Association of Beverage Retailers.


My hunch is that the IABR probably opposes allowing grocery and convenience stores to sell alcohol in any form on any day, preferring a monopoly on liquor sales. A few weeks ago one of the package liquor store owners from Indianapolis said repealing the ban on Sunday sales would give grocery and convenience chains an "unfair advantage" because it wouldn't be financially worth it for package stores to be open on Sundays.

I would like to point out that an unfair advantage would be lawmakers saying grocery and convenience chains can sell alcohol on Sundays but package stores can't. Allowing everyone to sell the same products on the same days simply levels the playing field. If the package stores don't want to open their doors on Sunday, they are free to stay closed. It is highly unlikely they will lose money by staying closed on a day they never did business on anyway.

A big reason for lifting the ban on Sunday sales is consistency. I know, politicians are terrible with consistency. I simply can't comprehend how it's okay for me to go to a bar, restaurant or sporting event and get trashed in public but not okay to buy a bottle of wine to have with Sunday dinner. Not only is it more consistent to not restrict store sales on Sunday, it may help with public safety. There would potentially be fewer drunk drivers who went to the bars instead of drinking at home, fewer public intoxication arrests, etc.

There is a group out there fighting for a repeal on the ban. Hoosiers for Beverage Choices also provides some interesting facts on their website. Among those:

  • Indiana is one of only three states that prohibits retailers from selling alcohol on Sunday yet allows restaurants, taverns and numerous sports and community events to sell alcohol by the drink on Sunday.
  • Indiana is one of only fifteen states that completely prohibits the carry-out sale of alcoholic beverages on Sundays.
  • Indiana loses tax revenue when Hoosiers that live in bordering communities travel to our neighboring states to purchase alcohol on Sunday.


The last point I think is a strong one, especially in tough economic times as tax revenues fall below projections. Almost everyone I know who has lived near one of our neighboring states has participated in a 'Sunday Beer Run.' That's money leaving our state.

I strongly encourage anyone interested in consumer choice to contact your state legislative leaders and express your position. Also, send an email to Governor Daniels. While you're at it, join the Hoosiers for Beverage Choices email list for updates and sign their online petition.

Friday, November 7, 2008

2008 Election Postmortem

Most people have already done their write-ups of the 2008 election. Everyone can agree it was historic, with the United States electing its first black president. Most people will agree that it was a repudiation of the Republican philosophy. Some will even argue it was the start of the relegation of the Republican Party to permanent minority status.

As with every election, there were big winners and big losers. Here are my opinions. Just as a warning, some people/groups will be in both categories.

Team Winner
The American People: Millions more people turned out at the polls this year than in 2004. Interest in the election was incredibly high, the number of donors to campaigns was record-breaking, and the number of campaign volunteers was enormous.
Barack Obama:There need be little explanation here. Four years ago Barack Obama was a state senator in Illinois. Today, he is the next President of the United States. His campaign was the most disciplined in recent memory, even rivaling that of President Bush. During a time when America is facing two wars and an economic crisis, the inexperienced candidate preaching a message of change defeated two extremely strong candidates preaching about their experience. In the end, voters said that while experience matters, change is what we needed. He will be armed with large majorities in both the House and the Senate, and he will have no excuse for failing to get his priorities through.
Howard Dean:After taking control of the DNC, the good Dr. Dean was roundly criticized by establishment Democrats for 'wasting' party resources in reliably Republican states. This year Dean was vindicated, as Democrats picked up House seats in Mississippi, Alabama, Arizona, and yes, even Idaho. Barack Obama essentially ran Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy during the primaries and made an amazing come-from-behind win over establishment Democrat Senator Hillary Clinton. In the General Election, Obama won solidly Republican Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, and even an electoral vote in Nebraska. When other Democrats would likely have pursued the traditional Battleground strategy of 5 or 6 states, Obama expanded the playing field using Dean's playbook.
Hillary Clinton:Senator Clinton never fails to amaze. After a hard-fought primary, the media speculated that Clinton would sit out the election and hope for an Obama loss. That would leave 2012 open for her. Instead, there were few who fought harder to get Senator Obama elected. She was an effective surrogate, especially in Pennsylvania and Florida, and she has only ensured her popularity in the Democratic Party. I imagine President Obama will be working very closely with the Senator from New York, especially on health care.
Roe v. Wade: With President Obama likely to appoint 3-4 Supreme Court Justices in his first term, Roe will be safe for another generation.
John McCain: After nearly bankrupting his campaign in 2007, McCain was counted out by most political observers who expected that Mitt Romney, who was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, would get the nomination. An upset win in Iowa by Mike Huckabee followed by a McCain comeback in New Hampshire ensured that Romney wasn't the guy. McCain's narrow win in Florida sealed the deal for him. It was fights like that that gave McCain the nickname "Lazarus."
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels: Mitch Daniels survived the Democratic wave. He ran a campaign without a single negative advertisement that was aimed at the center of the electorate. And he scored an amazing 58% of the vote. He made it clear this was the last office he would run for and he treated the campaign like a job interview.
Marion County, IN Democratic Party: While I'm sure much of it had to do with the Campaign for Change presence in Marion County, Congressman Andre Carson and party chairman Ed Treacy should be credited for the enormous successes on Election Day, too. Andre got his voters out, and he won over 60% of the vote. That's something his grandmother never accomplished. Marion County, which was essentially 50/50 in 2004, went to a 65-39 margin in favor of Obama. Democrats held the county-wide offices and picked up two seats in the Indiana House. Let's hope the party can keep it together and reclaim the Mayor's office and City Council in 3 years.
Early Voting: So many people took advantage of early voting that it is likely to be expanded both in Indiana and in other states for future elections. Early voting led to shorter lines for most on Election Day.

Team Loser
John McCain: John McCain has the unfortunate honor of getting hammered by Bush twice. The first time was during the 2000 Republican primaries, after McCain won the New Hampshire primary by a huge margin and turned that race on its head. Bush and Rove aggressively attacked McCain, and the thing that killed him was the fliers circulated in South Carolina accusing McCain of fathering a black baby and including a picture of his adopted Bangladeshi daughter. That experience left McCain bitter and angry with Bush.
McCain became a fierce opponent of the Bush administration and was widely expected to leave the Republican Party in 2001 to caucus with the Democrats, but 9/11 changed the conversation. That leads us to the second time Bush beat McCain. McCain's decision to attach himself so closely to Bush on the Iraq War and to brag about voting with Bush "over 90% of the time" doomed him almost from the outset. George Bush is the least popular president in recent history, and for McCain to stand next to him and say 'this is my guy' was political suicide. Sarah Palin certainly didn't help him, either.
Sarah Palin: Despite being woefully unprepared for the presidency, the governor of a state smaller in population than Obama's Illinois State Senate district initially provided a boost to McCain's campaign. Until we realized just how unprepared she was. The hockey mom from Alaska who didn't know Africa was a continent and reads every newspaper in the world was the only one on either ticket to have a negative approval rating. Despite her claims that she's just a middle class gal, she spent hundreds of thousands of dollars from the RNC to cloth her and her family, and the highest paid staff members on the McCain campaign were her stylist and makeup artist. It will be interesting to watch what she does over the next few years to reinvent herself, and see whether she will be a major player in Republican politics or whether she will become the Republican version of Geraldine Ferraro.
Hillary Clinton: She had the institutional support. She had the money. She had the stature. She had a 40 point lead in mid-2007. She was the candidate of experience, the liberal hawk America needed to lift us out of the Bush era. She was the Democratic nominee-apparent. And she lost to a man who was state senator just 3 years before. Hillary Clinton's campaign was one of the worst-run in history, aside from perhaps John McCain's. In an election about change, her advisers steered her to be the status quo candidate and the "quasi incumbent." Her refusal to apologize for her Iraq vote left her vulnerable on that issue. Her campaign's 'February 5' strategy turned out to be the nail in its coffin, as they didn't compete in the caucus states or Potomac Primaries which allowed Obama to win 11 contests in a row and rack up an insurmountable delegate lead. I still believe it didn't have to end up this way, and had Hillary run from the start as the change candidate Obama would have gone nowhere. Still, competing to the last primary was ultimately good for Obama and had she not done that, Indiana and North Carolina would have stayed Republican this year.
The Bradley Effect: Also known as the 'Wilder Effect.' The theory was that white voters would lie to pollsters and say they would support a black candidate, and then vote against that candidate in private. This year, Obama received a higher percentage of the white vote than John Kerry and the Bradley Effect can now be debunked.
Congressional Republicans: In a 2-year period, Republicans have lost over 50 seats in the House and at least 12 in the Senate. They are a party in panic and have to figure out a way to stay relevant. The Republican Party is at risk of becoming a regional party based in the South, and instead of adopting a big-tent strategy (welcoming moderates and independents), they appear to be moving to a smaller right-wing stance with Indiana's Mike Pence and Virginia's Eric Cantor taking leadership roles in the next Congress.
Gay Marriage Prop 8 passes banning gay marriage in California. The only silver lining is that young people were the only group to vote against it, and they did so by a very large margin. The future will be a different place.
Jill Long Thompson: She's just not cut out for a leadership role. Her two statewide campaigns have resulted in total thrashings. The fact that many Democrats didn't even know they had a candidate in the race speaks to her lack of presence. She tried hard but she didn't have the resources and didn't have the electricity to cut through.
The Indiana Democratic Party: In a year when a Democrat takes Indiana's electoral votes, the party fails to win any statewide offices and only added one net seat to the Indiana House majority. The Party and Jill Long Thompson's public squabbles following the primary couldn't have helped, but it might be time for new blood at IDP headquarters.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Andre Carson, Mitch Daniels Cruising to Reelection

A new poll done by Research 2000 for CBS shows both Congressman Andre Carson and Governor Mitch Daniels cruising to large victories in their respective races next Tuesday.

Democratic Congressman Andre Carson is posting a 15 point margin against Republican social worker Gabrielle Campo, leading 53% to 38%. Carson is buoyed by near-universal support among black voters and a strong lead with independent voters. The only category Campo is leading other than Republicans is with white voters, where she has a 20-point edge.



Likewise, Governor Mitch Daniels leads former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson by 14 points, 54%-40%. Daniels leads among men and women, Republicans, Independents, and even takes 12% of Democratic voters. Most concerning for the Democrat are the numbers from Marion County, which show Daniels leading Long-Thompson by 8 in a county essential for a statewide Democratic victory. That's a 12 point swing downward for Long-Thompson since the last CBS poll in September. Of course we have to remember that during the last half of September and first half of October, JLT didn't even have ads on the air so it isn't shocking that her numbers cratered in Marion County. Daniels has run a positive campaign and has run some truly great advertisements. Jill was never able to cut through the clutter. To the right is one of MMM's more memorable campaign ads.

On the presidential front, the numbers tell the same story they did a month ago. Indiana is tight as a tick on a deer's behind. Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain are tied with 47% each. This is fueled in part by Obama's performance in Marion County, where he is leading McCain by 8 points in a county that was split 50/50 between Bush and Kerry four years ago.

Interestingly, the number of ticket splitters is the key to this. Back in May, I think most observers would have said the most likely ticket split is the one that usually happens in Indiana. People will vote for the Republican presidential nominee and the Democratic candidate for governor. This year, the anecdotal evidence points to the reverse. I can't count the number of Daniels/Obama yard sign combinations I've seen here on Indy's north side.

The economy is the issue that dominates. And Obama's latest ad reminds voters of what McCain has to offer on that front:



That is probably one of my favorite Obama ads of the season.

For you junkies out there, Sarah Palin is the only candidate who has a negative favorability rating. She is seen favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 48%. The other Pres/VP candidates have a favorability of +10 or more.

Whatever the final numbers on Tuesday, Indiana will be deep purple rather than crimson.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Local Dominatrix Backs Adam Nelson for State Representative

Adam Nelson is a hard core Republican running for the state legislative seat currently held by David Orentlicher. The Indianapolis Star has endorsed Nelson's opponent, Democratic attorney Ed Delaney.


Over at Advance Indiana, Melyssa Donaghy (aka HFFT), attacked Ed Delaney as a "liar" and gave her implied support to "sweetheart" Adam Nelson. Donaghy of course is known for operating a bondage and discipline dungeon in her basement. The City of Indianapolis moved to shut that business down, along with other sexually related establishments.


Blogger HOOSIERS FOR FAIR TAX said...

Ed Delaney sent me a flyer months ago that he wanted to hear from people in his district and learn our concerns.

I called his office and emailed more than once. I still have not heard back.

As far as I'm concerned, he's a liar. If he's not going to listen to me BEFORE an election, he sure as hell won't hear me after the election.

He's a political insider elite.

Adam Nelson, on the other hand, is a sweetheart.

8:44 AM EST

Advance Indiana: Three Indianapolis House Districts Will Decide Fate Of Property Tax Caps


I have to think I'm not alone in wondering what brings HFFT to that conclusion. Was Mr. Nelson perhaps a client of hers? The good voters of the 86th district deserve to know. Does someone who pals around with a (former?) dominatrix have what it takes to represent the voters?

Call Adam Nelson and ask him about his relationship with Donaghy. Here are his contact details:

317-255-7728
adamnelson86@earthlink.net

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

IN-Pres Tight as a Tick. IN-Gov Not So Much

A new survey from Public Policy Polling suggests the presidential race in Indiana is tight, with Senator Barack Obama holding a statistically insignificant lead over Senator John McCain, 48%-46%. 6% of voters are still undecided or prefer another candidate. 92% of voters are "firm" in their commitment, meaning there is a very small group of 'persuadable' voters. Not a bad place to be in a pre-Powell poll.

Obama is buoyed by strong support from Democrats and a 10-point margin among Independent voters. Obama is registering only 89% of black voters, which seems relatively low given the historic nature of his candidacy, considering John Kerry and Al Gore received similar support among black voters in 2004 and 2000, respectively.

Unfortunately, the numbers for Indiana Governor are grim. Mitch Daniels is leading Jill Long-Thompson by a staggering 21 points, 57%-36%. Daniels is winning 86% of Republicans, a large majority of Independents, and even 28% of Democrats. I think this could be very true. I realize this is anecdotal evidence, but I've talked to a few people around my age who are all Obama voters. Several of them are voting for Mitch Daniels. When I ask them why they would do such a thing, they say they have no reason not to and not ONCE could anyone even name the person running against Daniels. Some of these are educated people.

This poll even looks at the two other statewide races, for Attorney General and for Superintendent of Public Education. In the AG race, Democrat Linda Pence has a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Greg Zoeller, 42%-39%. Republican Tony Bennett is leading Democrat Richard Wood by 38%-36% (read that as a tie, too). The key in these races are the undecideds. This far down the ballot, there are always a lot of undecided voters and most likely the party that can get the most straight party voters will prevail.

So, some great news, some okay news, and some really bad news.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Debate Reactions: Desperate, Angry McCain

The reviews of the final presidential debate are coming in, and they are not pretty for John McCain. McCain sneered, snarled, and grunted his way through the 90 minute match in hopes of throwing Barack Obama off his game. He failed, and miserably at that.

The snap polls conducted by CNN and CBS showed that Obama overwhelmingly “won” the debate. Here are the numbers:

CNN
Obama 58%
McCain 31%

CBS Undecided Voters
Obama 53%
McCain 22%


Snap polls have been criticized by Republicans as unreliable in the past few debates, yet they actually showed Obama underperforming compared to traditional multi-day polls. Republicans instead point to online “polls” at such places like Drudge Report, which suggest that McCain “won” the debate 73% to 25%. Gee, I wonder who is reading Drudge.

In addition to the snap polls, several networks had focus groups. All of those networks, including the Republican Fox News, had Obama as the clear winner of the debate. From the Fox News focus group:



McCain’s main problem tonight was that he was unfocused. He lashed out at Obama over everything, and didn’t even try to explain how he, John McCain, would be a better president. He pretty much called Obama a liberal tax increasing baby killer who pals around with terrorists. The reaction shots of John McCain when Obama was talking were priceless. He rolled his eyes, made strange noises, and sneered at Senator Obama. The voters, focus group members, and pundits all viewed that as desperate.

From the McCain-friendly Roger Simon at Politico:
John McCain needed a miracle in his final debate with Barack Obama on Wednesday night, a miracle that would wipe away McCain’s deficit in the polls and re-energize his flagging campaign.

He did not get one. The clouds did not part. Heavenly choirs were not heard. Instead, the American public heard angry attacks from McCain.

Sometimes McCain attacked directly, and sometimes he attacked sarcastically, but he never stopped attacking. And he never rattled Obama. Obama answered every attack and kept his cool.


Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic believes that ‘on points’ McCain may have actually “won” the debate:
But debates aren't usually won on points.

They're won on valence and visuals.

Emotions and body language.

And tonight, we saw a McXplosion. Every single attack that Sen. McCain has ever wanted to make, he took the opportunity tonight to make. Around 30 minutes in, McCain seemed to surrender the debate to his frustrations, making it seem as if he just wanted the free television.

His substance suffered; it didn't make sense at times. He seemed personally offended by negative ads; he tried to make a point about Obama's character, but all the sleight were those Obama allegedly inflicted on Obama: the town halls, campaign finance, negative ads, etc. He allowed himself to get caught up in his own grievances. It was just plain unattractive on television. He moved quickly from William Ayers to taxes without a transition. From Obama's opposition to trade agreements to taxes. No intermediate steps. Blizzards of words without unifying strings.


Ezra Klein at The American Prospect agrees with Ambinder that ‘on the points,’ McCain might have won but he lost the debate. He adds:
He was looking to land shots, and often succeeded. But the effort to find openings and vulnerabilities left him with little time to appear presidential. And if he connected with jabs, he never found his knockout blow. Worse, the attacks came at a cost: The angry energy showed on McCain's face as clearly as in his answers…

…McCain looks angrier and more petulant than any participant in any major debate I've watched. Watching him try to stay seated is like watching a furious child try and obey a timeout. He can hardly hold still.


Already, YouTube roll of McCain’s disgusted reaction shots have hit the street.



Overall, McCain may have fatally damaged himself tonight at a time when he needed to fatally damage Obama. I’m not talking about the presidential campaign, but about John McCain’s legacy. Instead of going out as the maverick straight-talker the public thought he was, he will be known as the angry old man who waged a nasty and dishonorable campaign. Nothing he does in the next 18 days will change that.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Open Comment to Advance Indiana

Today Advance Indiana suggested that gay people shouldn't support Obama because he took a trip to Kenya and did an appearance with a Kenyan politician who is a distant cousin of Obama. AI implied that Obama supports the Islamic Sharia Law which requires that gays be put to death.

Here was my response:

I watched the entire video and Obama said absolutely nothing to support Odinga. Of course on that same visit, he also met with other political leaders in Kenya but the editing job told the story it wanted to tell.

Show me some evidence that Obama actually supports Sharia Law any more than the rest of us do (every time we buy gas), then I might believe you.

Frankly, I don't know why you focus on national political issues. You don't have anything new or original to say. Your local commentary is far more interesting and I think it makes you more credible. When you try to link Obama to Sharia Law, you look like a lunatic.


Guilt by association is a terrible standard to hold people to. But I'm noticing more and more that those who oppose Barack Obama have nothing left but trying to tie him to controversial figures. Those dead-enders have lost the war of ideas. If the election were 100% about the issues, Obama would win with 60-70% of the vote. That is why this campaign (and frankly most modern campaigns) aren't about issues, they about character.

Frankly, I would rather vote for someone's tax policy than vote against them because they stood next to someone at a public rally. Oh well. It's over in 3 weeks.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

A Brief History of the City of Lawrence, Indiana

Lawrence is one of the four cities within Marion County that were "excluded" under the Unigov policy in the 1960's. Under Unigov, the City of Indianapolis grew to include the entirety of Marion County, excepting only the excluded cities. Three of the cities, Lawrence, Beech Grove, and Southport elected their own mayor and council. The excluded cities also maintained their own police and fire forces as well as their own schools. The City of Lawrence is the in the Northeast corner of Marion County.

For much of my life, Lawrence continued to send one of the most corrupt and unethical men in the city to the mayor's office. Tom Schneider was a crook, a drunk, and a racist to boot. After nearly 20 years as mayor, Schneider decided to run for Marion County Sheriff in 2002. He defeated a former sheriff in the primary, a longtime friend of his named Joe McAtee.

During that campaign for sheriff against Democrat Frank Anderson, Schneider released an unusual mailer that included a blurred image of then-Congresswoman Julia Carson that was widely described as racist, or at the very least race-baiting. The image is below:

Tom Schneider Brochure The Republican pulled the image, but it provided a narrative that Schneider was running an in-the-gutter campaign, while Anderson was playing above the fray. Frank Anderson was always going to win that election, but when Schneider's primary opponent Joe McAtee cut an ad endorsing Frank Anderson, the deal was sealed. Schneider was so ungracious he didn't even attend his party that night, didn't speak to the press, and didn't even thank his supporters.

In between his race for sheriff and his reelection campaign, Schneider thought it would be a good idea to privatize the Lawrence water company and sell it for cheap to political allies of his. In a period of months water bills in Lawrence doubled.
Voters, already embarrassed by his behavior in the race for sheriff, were pissed off about the privatization. The Democrats nominated a political neophyte, Deborah Cantwell, to challenge Schneider in the race.

I remember the election well. I thought Lawrence was so Republican that Schneider, crook or not, would have the seat for as long as he wanted it. When election returns came in showing Cantwell in the lead, I assumed they must be reporting the Democratic precincts first. But the lead never gave way, and Lawrence elected its first Democratic mayor in recent memory. Cantwell campaigned hard on the water issue, and so that was a major focus of her administration. She sued the utility company, alleging (rightly) that the deal wasn't legit and the consumers were getting screwed. At the end, she decided to settle but that made her look like a failure.

Cantwell had her own problems, too. Throughout her administration she was teased about being a body builder, she was accused of not actually living in Lawrence (her detractors said she lived in Broad Ripple), she hired bodyguards due to several "death threats," and she was allegedly romantically involved with the city attorney. Democrats on the city council voted with Republicans on big issues and Cantwell wasn't seen as being particularly effective.

In 2007, she was running against Republican Paul Ricketts, the former Lawrence Township Assessor who lost that job in 2006. Ricketts, too, was an interesting character. Ricketts admitted to trying to run over a man who allegedly hit on his wife. That man, Ron Ryker, decided to run for mayor as an independent candidate. Cantwell was soundly defeated.

Paul Ricketts has continued in the tradition of the Mayor of Lawrence being a political punchline. But that, my friends, will require another post.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

IN Gov Race: Upset in the Making?

Last month, Jill Long Thompson's campaign for Indiana governor was virtually written off by most serious observers of politics. She pulled her ads, shut down field operations, spent time campaigning in previously "safe" areas, and has been virtually invisible in most of the state for the past three weeks.

The reason she took her ads down, she said, was because they were working so well that they achieved what they intended them to do. The reason they closed down field operations, she said, was because nobody anticipated that the Obama campaign would have such a strong presence in the state. Her fundraising is also going "strongly," though few major contributions have been reported recently.

Frankly, what I saw was a campaign that couldn't afford the ads, didn't have the funds or volunteers to sustain a field operation, and a campaign that is no longer getting the significant fundraising support support from groups like EMILY's List. All the while, Mitch Daniels, the corporate stooge intent upon selling our state to the lowest bidder, has been able to create memorable, folksy, positive advertisements.

The Pollster.com "poll of polls" shows the race trending to a blowout for Mitch Daniels, with JLT averaging in the mid-30's and Daniels averaging in the low-50's. The last poll to show Jill leading Daniels is a Down's Center poll from April which showed a 3 point lead.



Look at the information above, most good Democrats would ask "Is there hope?" Well, if two recent polls suggest that there is. A poll for the Indianapolis Star had JLT within striking distance of Daniels, who led 46%-42%. And now, a second independent poll from Research 2000 shows Jill in a statistical tie with Daniels:

Research 2000
600 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 4%
Sept. 28-30

47% - Mitch Daniels
46% - Jill Long Thompson
3% - Other
4% - Undecided


The most dangerous opponent in politics is the underestimated opponent. Jill Long Thompson is very underestimated at this point in the campaign. Republicans might not feel as threatened as they would if Jill were leading, and so the "stop Jill" energy isn't really strong at this point.

We need to be clear that JLT, like any challenger, is an underdog in this race. But the pieces could be in place for a stunning upset that will have Chris Cilizza eating crow.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Economy Sinking John McCain's Ship

When Fox News has McCain losing in a poll, you know it's a bad day to be the Republican nominee for President. According to the latest Fox News poll, McCain has dipped to 39%, with Barack Obama atracting 45% of voters.

This comes on the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Obama with a 9 point edge over the Republican, 52% to 43%. According to the poll,

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.


The daily tracking polls are universal in showing Obama leads as well.

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48% to McCain's 42%

Gallup: Obama 47% to McCain's 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 49% to McCain's 47%

Research 2000: Obama 48% to McCain's 44%


But, but... the election isn't decided by the national vote, it's decided by the state votes. Yep. And a slew of newly released Marist polls show Obama leading in 5 of the top "battleground" states:

Iowa: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

Michigan: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

New Hampshire: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

Ohio: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

What is driving the McCain collapse? It's the economy, stupid. According to the ABC poll cited above, fully 50% of voters believe jobs and the economy are issue number one, and Obama has a 14% lead among those voters. Iraq and national defense are the areas where McCain has the advantage, but those issues are virtually off the radar.

There is both good news and bad news for each candidate in these polls. For Obama the good news is clear: the voters prefer him to McCain on the most important issues. The bad news for McCain is that he probably can't spend enough money trying to drag himself out of the economy hole (voters just don't trust him on this issue). The bad news for Obama is that while things are good for him now, something could easily happen in the next few weeks that shifts the focus back to McCain's area of strength.

If anything, the current economic crisis shows that the campaigns are all but irrelevant because they can't control the outside events which shape voter perception. A candidate can spend $10 Million on an ad buy and it gets completely overshadowed by a collapsing stock market or a terrorist attack.

This is going to be a long 5 weeks, but if conditions remain relatively static, this election is Barack Obama's to lose and he may even find a 60-seat majority waiting for him on January 20th.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

$200 to Change Indiana

So what's the story?
This November, Hoosier voters will have the opportunity to change the face of state government. George Bush's former budget man Mitch Daniels is the current governor. He has sold off the state's infrastructure and sold out to big business. From daylight savings time to education to pollution to job creation, Mitch Daniels has been bad for Indiana.

The Democratic candidate is former Congresswoman and Clinton Undersecretary of Agriculture Jill Long Thompson. Long Thompson is committed to the middle class and has a sound plan for economic growth. She also has a plan to help Hoosier families get health insurance. And she represents history by being the first female governor in Indiana's history.

What is the state of the race?
Indiana is a strong Republican state, so this race would be difficult no matter who our candidate was. Mitch Daniels has the largest campaign war chest in Indiana history, and has been spending freely since February. Let's face it folks, Jill Long Thompson is the underdog and if she wins it will be a big upset.

But there is good news. The latest poll done for the Indianapolis Star by venerable pollster Ann Selzer (regarded by other pollsters as one of the best in the biz) shows the Democratic challenger within striking distance, and finds that Mitch Daniels is below the 50% mark:

Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels holds a four-point lead in his bid for a second term, including support from one in five voters who plan to back Democrat Barack Obama for president, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Daniels leads Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points.


Is the Governor's race the only important race?

No! Indiana Democrats have a fragile hold on the lower house of the Indiana legislature. With Barack Obama's historic field efforts in our state, their numbers are likely to expand, particularly in some of the Indianapolis-area districts that are currently represented by "moderate" Republicans.

Sadly, the Indiana State Senate is so gerrymandered that it is nearly impossible to capture this year.

Why should I care about Indiana?

In 2006, Indiana voters sent three Republican congressmen home, and replaced them with three Democrats, 10% of the total gains nationally that year. In Indiana, redistricting is controlled by the party that controls the governor's office and one house of the legislature. If the Republicans control redistricting, Indiana Democrats will lose between 3 and 4 seats in 2012.

What can I do to help?

As I mentioned before, the Obama campaign has an amazing field operation here, especially in the Indianapolis area. But while this is helpful, it is so important for our candidates for state legislature and governor have their own resources to get their own messages out.

My challenge is to raise $400, or $100 for each candidate on my Indiana for Change ActBlue fundraising page. I'm already almost halfway to that goal, and we need just over $200 to meet it. All the candidates share something in common. They are representing winnable districts (or in Jill's case, a winnable state). But all those districts are currently Republican-held and they need our help.

So please, stop by and contribute what you can.

Bonus

To show that I'm invested in this, I will match the first $5 of the first 10 donors to my page. Even a small amount like $5 can help a local candidate buy things like clipboards, copy paper, pens, etc.

We Hoosiers really appreciate your help!

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Dear Congressman Carson: Please Debate Republican Campo

I made a very simple suggestion to Congressman Andre Carson in a blog post at Blue Indiana :

I'm reading in several places that Andre Carson's campaign has refused to organize a debate with the Republican nominee, Gabrielle Campo. Why is this? We know Andre is on the right side of the issues, but the voters of the 7th District deserve to at least compare the two candidates.

We certainly don't want Andre to become the Democratic Steve Buyer, do we?

That simple suggestion prompted an angry response from one of Congressman Carson's staffers, who suggested that because Carson debated other opponents in his previous elections, and because the Congressman is "a little busy." She made a great point that Carson has been out in the community talking about the issues that matter, and that while Congress is in session he is busy doing the people's business. Note to Erin: I get that.

We have 6 weeks until Election Day, and I'm sure that one one day out of the next 50, the Congressman and Candidate Campo can find time to get on a stage together to talk about the issues side by side. For Carson, who has the advantage of a strongly Democratic district, incumbency, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in his campaign treasury, agreeing to a public forum with Ms. Campo would inocculate him against right-wing charges that he's afraid to debate or worse, too arrogant to debate.

In many cases, candidates running against incumbents or another candidate from the district's dominant political party have little campaign resources to speak of, and stand nearly zero chance of getting elected. A debate or forum is often the only chance the challenger has to get their voice heard. This certainly isn't the fault of Congressman Carson. He is simply playing the game by the rules. But he has a great opportunity to expand the rules, to be magnanimous in allowing Campo a place to make her (bad) case.

Unfortunately the Congressman's staff response that 'he's too busy' makes it clear he has little interest in enchancing the democratic nature of this race. He's already behaving like the entrenched incumbent he is destined to become.

Which gets to the last sentence of my post at Blue Indiana. Steve Buyer is an entrenched incumbent whose staff has said several times that he is "too busy" with his duties as Congressman to debate his opponent (in this case, Nels! Ackerson). Erin's point that Carson, unlike Buyer, has debated several times this year. My response is that he had to. Nobody knew who Andre Carson was before he ran for slating to succeed his grandmother, and nobody knew about his politics. He had to go to forums and talk about what he stood for. It simply wasn't an option for him to duck those debates. But for him to have no plans to debate his first General Election Republican challenger certainly puts him on the Buyer track.

We Democrats get upset when entrenched politicians from the other side refuse to debate our candidates, even our long shot candidates like Nels Ackerson and Barry Welsh. But we are far too willing to accept it when entrenched politicians on our side refuse to debate their opponents. I'm not a fan of this double standard. While I think all our candidates should debate their Republican opponents at least once before Election Day, Congressman Carson is MY representative and thus this post is directed at him and his campaign.

There is still time for things to change. I know that Jesus MCC, the church that provided a forum for the Special Election, would be happy to host another forum. I'm sure the Urban League would be happy to oblige. The campaign just has to be willing to bear with it. When Steve Buyer decided that even he could debate his Democratic opponent, it showed that miracles really can happen.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

In the Beginning...

Kos created the orange and the white, and the earth was without blogs, and void of a sphere of left-wing influence to counter the darkness that was right wing talk radio...

Okay, enough of the biblical shtick. Daily Kos was the very first blog I read way back during the days of Howard Dean's upstart run for the Presidency back in the Spring of 2003. I lurked and eventually posted under a now-banned user name for a period before drifting over to MyDD, a smaller, smarter, more user-friendly blog in 2005. Starting at the end of 2006 I picked up the pseudonym Vox Populi and started my tenure at MyDD as one of the most prominent promoters of John Edwards' presidential run (thankfully my guy didn't become the nominee). During 2007, I discovered a small website called Blue Indiana, where late that year our dear Wilson dubbed me "Vox Republicani" for my criticism of the Carsons. Shortly after Andre Carson became our Congressman I posted a single post on the now-defunct Tyrion's Point.

I love Blue Indiana. Thomas is one smart cookie. In addition to remaining a poster there, however, I've decided to go out on my own for a trial run (hence the free and easy-to-use Blogger account). Hoosier Progressive is the name of the blog, and advancing progressive ideas, cultural issues and candidates is the agenda.

Of course I'll bash Republicans and their allies when warranted. Which will probably be often. While I expect to find very minimal readership, I hope those of us who do visit here are able to enjoy each other's company for a long time to come.

Sincerely,

Vox Populi