Economy Sinking John McCain's Ship

When Fox News has McCain losing in a poll, you know it's a bad day to be the Republican nominee for President. According to the latest Fox News poll, McCain has dipped to 39%, with Barack Obama atracting 45% of voters.

This comes on the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Obama with a 9 point edge over the Republican, 52% to 43%. According to the poll,

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

The daily tracking polls are universal in showing Obama leads as well.

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48% to McCain's 42%

Gallup: Obama 47% to McCain's 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 49% to McCain's 47%

Research 2000: Obama 48% to McCain's 44%

But, but... the election isn't decided by the national vote, it's decided by the state votes. Yep. And a slew of newly released Marist polls show Obama leading in 5 of the top "battleground" states:

Iowa: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

Michigan: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

New Hampshire: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

Ohio: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

What is driving the McCain collapse? It's the economy, stupid. According to the ABC poll cited above, fully 50% of voters believe jobs and the economy are issue number one, and Obama has a 14% lead among those voters. Iraq and national defense are the areas where McCain has the advantage, but those issues are virtually off the radar.

There is both good news and bad news for each candidate in these polls. For Obama the good news is clear: the voters prefer him to McCain on the most important issues. The bad news for McCain is that he probably can't spend enough money trying to drag himself out of the economy hole (voters just don't trust him on this issue). The bad news for Obama is that while things are good for him now, something could easily happen in the next few weeks that shifts the focus back to McCain's area of strength.

If anything, the current economic crisis shows that the campaigns are all but irrelevant because they can't control the outside events which shape voter perception. A candidate can spend $10 Million on an ad buy and it gets completely overshadowed by a collapsing stock market or a terrorist attack.

This is going to be a long 5 weeks, but if conditions remain relatively static, this election is Barack Obama's to lose and he may even find a 60-seat majority waiting for him on January 20th.