IN-Pres Tight as a Tick. IN-Gov Not So Much

A new survey from Public Policy Polling suggests the presidential race in Indiana is tight, with Senator Barack Obama holding a statistically insignificant lead over Senator John McCain, 48%-46%. 6% of voters are still undecided or prefer another candidate. 92% of voters are "firm" in their commitment, meaning there is a very small group of 'persuadable' voters. Not a bad place to be in a pre-Powell poll.

Obama is buoyed by strong support from Democrats and a 10-point margin among Independent voters. Obama is registering only 89% of black voters, which seems relatively low given the historic nature of his candidacy, considering John Kerry and Al Gore received similar support among black voters in 2004 and 2000, respectively.

Unfortunately, the numbers for Indiana Governor are grim. Mitch Daniels is leading Jill Long-Thompson by a staggering 21 points, 57%-36%. Daniels is winning 86% of Republicans, a large majority of Independents, and even 28% of Democrats. I think this could be very true. I realize this is anecdotal evidence, but I've talked to a few people around my age who are all Obama voters. Several of them are voting for Mitch Daniels. When I ask them why they would do such a thing, they say they have no reason not to and not ONCE could anyone even name the person running against Daniels. Some of these are educated people.

This poll even looks at the two other statewide races, for Attorney General and for Superintendent of Public Education. In the AG race, Democrat Linda Pence has a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Greg Zoeller, 42%-39%. Republican Tony Bennett is leading Democrat Richard Wood by 38%-36% (read that as a tie, too). The key in these races are the undecideds. This far down the ballot, there are always a lot of undecided voters and most likely the party that can get the most straight party voters will prevail.

So, some great news, some okay news, and some really bad news.