Andre Carson, Mitch Daniels Cruising to Reelection

A new poll done by Research 2000 for CBS shows both Congressman Andre Carson and Governor Mitch Daniels cruising to large victories in their respective races next Tuesday.

Democratic Congressman Andre Carson is posting a 15 point margin against Republican social worker Gabrielle Campo, leading 53% to 38%. Carson is buoyed by near-universal support among black voters and a strong lead with independent voters. The only category Campo is leading other than Republicans is with white voters, where she has a 20-point edge.



Likewise, Governor Mitch Daniels leads former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson by 14 points, 54%-40%. Daniels leads among men and women, Republicans, Independents, and even takes 12% of Democratic voters. Most concerning for the Democrat are the numbers from Marion County, which show Daniels leading Long-Thompson by 8 in a county essential for a statewide Democratic victory. That's a 12 point swing downward for Long-Thompson since the last CBS poll in September. Of course we have to remember that during the last half of September and first half of October, JLT didn't even have ads on the air so it isn't shocking that her numbers cratered in Marion County. Daniels has run a positive campaign and has run some truly great advertisements. Jill was never able to cut through the clutter. To the right is one of MMM's more memorable campaign ads.

On the presidential front, the numbers tell the same story they did a month ago. Indiana is tight as a tick on a deer's behind. Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain are tied with 47% each. This is fueled in part by Obama's performance in Marion County, where he is leading McCain by 8 points in a county that was split 50/50 between Bush and Kerry four years ago.

Interestingly, the number of ticket splitters is the key to this. Back in May, I think most observers would have said the most likely ticket split is the one that usually happens in Indiana. People will vote for the Republican presidential nominee and the Democratic candidate for governor. This year, the anecdotal evidence points to the reverse. I can't count the number of Daniels/Obama yard sign combinations I've seen here on Indy's north side.

The economy is the issue that dominates. And Obama's latest ad reminds voters of what McCain has to offer on that front:



That is probably one of my favorite Obama ads of the season.

For you junkies out there, Sarah Palin is the only candidate who has a negative favorability rating. She is seen favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 48%. The other Pres/VP candidates have a favorability of +10 or more.

Whatever the final numbers on Tuesday, Indiana will be deep purple rather than crimson.

Economy Sinking John McCain's Ship

When Fox News has McCain losing in a poll, you know it's a bad day to be the Republican nominee for President. According to the latest Fox News poll, McCain has dipped to 39%, with Barack Obama atracting 45% of voters.

This comes on the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Obama with a 9 point edge over the Republican, 52% to 43%. According to the poll,

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

The daily tracking polls are universal in showing Obama leads as well.

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48% to McCain's 42%

Gallup: Obama 47% to McCain's 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 49% to McCain's 47%

Research 2000: Obama 48% to McCain's 44%

But, but... the election isn't decided by the national vote, it's decided by the state votes. Yep. And a slew of newly released Marist polls show Obama leading in 5 of the top "battleground" states:

Iowa: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

Michigan: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

New Hampshire: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

Ohio: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

What is driving the McCain collapse? It's the economy, stupid. According to the ABC poll cited above, fully 50% of voters believe jobs and the economy are issue number one, and Obama has a 14% lead among those voters. Iraq and national defense are the areas where McCain has the advantage, but those issues are virtually off the radar.

There is both good news and bad news for each candidate in these polls. For Obama the good news is clear: the voters prefer him to McCain on the most important issues. The bad news for McCain is that he probably can't spend enough money trying to drag himself out of the economy hole (voters just don't trust him on this issue). The bad news for Obama is that while things are good for him now, something could easily happen in the next few weeks that shifts the focus back to McCain's area of strength.

If anything, the current economic crisis shows that the campaigns are all but irrelevant because they can't control the outside events which shape voter perception. A candidate can spend $10 Million on an ad buy and it gets completely overshadowed by a collapsing stock market or a terrorist attack.

This is going to be a long 5 weeks, but if conditions remain relatively static, this election is Barack Obama's to lose and he may even find a 60-seat majority waiting for him on January 20th.