Sorry Jill, Sorry Phil, These Seats are Taken.

Last week I wrote a post about the three Hoosiers who were being considered for cabinet-level posts in the Obama Administration. Since then, two of those people were moved off the list.

Former Congressman Phil Sharp was passed over for Energy Secretary when President-elect Barack Obama chose Dr. Steven Chu to be his Secretary of Energy. From Reuters:

(Dr.) Chu is director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and shared the 1997 Nobel Prize in physics. He was an early advocate for scientific solutions to climate change.

Likewise, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson missed out on becoming the next leader of the USDA, with Obama picking former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack for that role. Vilsack is something of a surprise considering he told the media he wasn't being considered for "any position" in an Obama government. Sustainable and Organic Agriculture groups oppose the Vilsack nomination because they believe he is too close to the biotech industry and Big Agra. From Reuters:

If confirmed by the Senate, Vilsack, 58, would be the first Iowan to lead the Agriculture Department since Henry Wallace during the Depression era. Wallace, an editor, economist and developer of hybrid corn, had a seminal role in the creation of the U.S. farm support system still in use.

Just to share some interesting trivia, Henry Wallace was not only Roosevelt's USDA chief, but also his Vice President from 1941-1945. Wallace didn't play well with other members of the Roosevelt cabinet, and in the 1944 campaign he was removed from the ticket and replaced by Harry Truman, whom Wallace would run against as the Progressive Party's candidate for president in 1948. I doubt Tom Vilsack will repeat that history.

Long Thompson and Sharp may still find positions within USDA and Energy, but former Congressman Tim Roemer is now the only Hoosier likely to get a cabinet-level post. My money is still on the Director of National Intelligence spot. What say you?

Three Hoosiers on Obama's Cabinet Short-List

According to multiple sources, there are three former members of Congress from Indiana still under consideration for cabinet-level jobs in the Obama Administration. One of them is very likely to get a post, while the other two are longer shots.

Jill Long Thompson, the former Congresswoman from Northeastern Indiana and 2008 Indiana gubernatorial candidate. She has been mentioned as a possible candidate for Agriculture Secretary.

Phil Sharp, the former 10-term Congressman from the Muncie area. Sharp made energy a focus during his years and has since worked on energy issues at Resources for the Future.

Former Congressman Tim Roemer from northern Indiana has been mentioned as potential CIA chief or Director of National Intelligence. He was one of Obama's national security advisers throughout the campaign.

Of the three, I think Roemer is the most likely appointment. He was a strong surrogate for Obama in the primaries and was even mentioned as a possible running mate. He served on the 9/11 Commission and essentially helped create today's intelligence infrastructure. I think it's much more likely that he would get the DNI job over CIA, as the latter will likely be filled by a career spy.

Phil Sharp is a brilliant guy, pro-science and an expert on energy matters. I don't think it will be him, but at the same time I wouldn't be to surprised.

I think Jill Long Thompson would do a fine job, but I think she is least likely among the three to get an appointment. It is very possible that she will be the number 2 or 3 in the department.

What say you?

Andre Carson, Mitch Daniels Cruising to Reelection

A new poll done by Research 2000 for CBS shows both Congressman Andre Carson and Governor Mitch Daniels cruising to large victories in their respective races next Tuesday.

Democratic Congressman Andre Carson is posting a 15 point margin against Republican social worker Gabrielle Campo, leading 53% to 38%. Carson is buoyed by near-universal support among black voters and a strong lead with independent voters. The only category Campo is leading other than Republicans is with white voters, where she has a 20-point edge.



Likewise, Governor Mitch Daniels leads former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson by 14 points, 54%-40%. Daniels leads among men and women, Republicans, Independents, and even takes 12% of Democratic voters. Most concerning for the Democrat are the numbers from Marion County, which show Daniels leading Long-Thompson by 8 in a county essential for a statewide Democratic victory. That's a 12 point swing downward for Long-Thompson since the last CBS poll in September. Of course we have to remember that during the last half of September and first half of October, JLT didn't even have ads on the air so it isn't shocking that her numbers cratered in Marion County. Daniels has run a positive campaign and has run some truly great advertisements. Jill was never able to cut through the clutter. To the right is one of MMM's more memorable campaign ads.

On the presidential front, the numbers tell the same story they did a month ago. Indiana is tight as a tick on a deer's behind. Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain are tied with 47% each. This is fueled in part by Obama's performance in Marion County, where he is leading McCain by 8 points in a county that was split 50/50 between Bush and Kerry four years ago.

Interestingly, the number of ticket splitters is the key to this. Back in May, I think most observers would have said the most likely ticket split is the one that usually happens in Indiana. People will vote for the Republican presidential nominee and the Democratic candidate for governor. This year, the anecdotal evidence points to the reverse. I can't count the number of Daniels/Obama yard sign combinations I've seen here on Indy's north side.

The economy is the issue that dominates. And Obama's latest ad reminds voters of what McCain has to offer on that front:



That is probably one of my favorite Obama ads of the season.

For you junkies out there, Sarah Palin is the only candidate who has a negative favorability rating. She is seen favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 48%. The other Pres/VP candidates have a favorability of +10 or more.

Whatever the final numbers on Tuesday, Indiana will be deep purple rather than crimson.

IN Gov Race: Upset in the Making?

Last month, Jill Long Thompson's campaign for Indiana governor was virtually written off by most serious observers of politics. She pulled her ads, shut down field operations, spent time campaigning in previously "safe" areas, and has been virtually invisible in most of the state for the past three weeks.

The reason she took her ads down, she said, was because they were working so well that they achieved what they intended them to do. The reason they closed down field operations, she said, was because nobody anticipated that the Obama campaign would have such a strong presence in the state. Her fundraising is also going "strongly," though few major contributions have been reported recently.

Frankly, what I saw was a campaign that couldn't afford the ads, didn't have the funds or volunteers to sustain a field operation, and a campaign that is no longer getting the significant fundraising support support from groups like EMILY's List. All the while, Mitch Daniels, the corporate stooge intent upon selling our state to the lowest bidder, has been able to create memorable, folksy, positive advertisements.

The Pollster.com "poll of polls" shows the race trending to a blowout for Mitch Daniels, with JLT averaging in the mid-30's and Daniels averaging in the low-50's. The last poll to show Jill leading Daniels is a Down's Center poll from April which showed a 3 point lead.



Look at the information above, most good Democrats would ask "Is there hope?" Well, if two recent polls suggest that there is. A poll for the Indianapolis Star had JLT within striking distance of Daniels, who led 46%-42%. And now, a second independent poll from Research 2000 shows Jill in a statistical tie with Daniels:

Research 2000
600 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 4%
Sept. 28-30

47% - Mitch Daniels
46% - Jill Long Thompson
3% - Other
4% - Undecided

The most dangerous opponent in politics is the underestimated opponent. Jill Long Thompson is very underestimated at this point in the campaign. Republicans might not feel as threatened as they would if Jill were leading, and so the "stop Jill" energy isn't really strong at this point.

We need to be clear that JLT, like any challenger, is an underdog in this race. But the pieces could be in place for a stunning upset that will have Chris Cilizza eating crow.

$200 to Change Indiana

So what's the story?
This November, Hoosier voters will have the opportunity to change the face of state government. George Bush's former budget man Mitch Daniels is the current governor. He has sold off the state's infrastructure and sold out to big business. From daylight savings time to education to pollution to job creation, Mitch Daniels has been bad for Indiana.

The Democratic candidate is former Congresswoman and Clinton Undersecretary of Agriculture Jill Long Thompson. Long Thompson is committed to the middle class and has a sound plan for economic growth. She also has a plan to help Hoosier families get health insurance. And she represents history by being the first female governor in Indiana's history.

What is the state of the race?
Indiana is a strong Republican state, so this race would be difficult no matter who our candidate was. Mitch Daniels has the largest campaign war chest in Indiana history, and has been spending freely since February. Let's face it folks, Jill Long Thompson is the underdog and if she wins it will be a big upset.

But there is good news. The latest poll done for the Indianapolis Star by venerable pollster Ann Selzer (regarded by other pollsters as one of the best in the biz) shows the Democratic challenger within striking distance, and finds that Mitch Daniels is below the 50% mark:

Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels holds a four-point lead in his bid for a second term, including support from one in five voters who plan to back Democrat Barack Obama for president, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Daniels leads Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points.

Is the Governor's race the only important race?

No! Indiana Democrats have a fragile hold on the lower house of the Indiana legislature. With Barack Obama's historic field efforts in our state, their numbers are likely to expand, particularly in some of the Indianapolis-area districts that are currently represented by "moderate" Republicans.

Sadly, the Indiana State Senate is so gerrymandered that it is nearly impossible to capture this year.

Why should I care about Indiana?

In 2006, Indiana voters sent three Republican congressmen home, and replaced them with three Democrats, 10% of the total gains nationally that year. In Indiana, redistricting is controlled by the party that controls the governor's office and one house of the legislature. If the Republicans control redistricting, Indiana Democrats will lose between 3 and 4 seats in 2012.

What can I do to help?

As I mentioned before, the Obama campaign has an amazing field operation here, especially in the Indianapolis area. But while this is helpful, it is so important for our candidates for state legislature and governor have their own resources to get their own messages out.

My challenge is to raise $400, or $100 for each candidate on my Indiana for Change ActBlue fundraising page. I'm already almost halfway to that goal, and we need just over $200 to meet it. All the candidates share something in common. They are representing winnable districts (or in Jill's case, a winnable state). But all those districts are currently Republican-held and they need our help.

So please, stop by and contribute what you can.

Bonus

To show that I'm invested in this, I will match the first $5 of the first 10 donors to my page. Even a small amount like $5 can help a local candidate buy things like clipboards, copy paper, pens, etc.

We Hoosiers really appreciate your help!