2008 Election Postmortem

Most people have already done their write-ups of the 2008 election. Everyone can agree it was historic, with the United States electing its first black president. Most people will agree that it was a repudiation of the Republican philosophy. Some will even argue it was the start of the relegation of the Republican Party to permanent minority status.

As with every election, there were big winners and big losers. Here are my opinions. Just as a warning, some people/groups will be in both categories.

Team Winner
The American People: Millions more people turned out at the polls this year than in 2004. Interest in the election was incredibly high, the number of donors to campaigns was record-breaking, and the number of campaign volunteers was enormous.
Barack Obama:There need be little explanation here. Four years ago Barack Obama was a state senator in Illinois. Today, he is the next President of the United States. His campaign was the most disciplined in recent memory, even rivaling that of President Bush. During a time when America is facing two wars and an economic crisis, the inexperienced candidate preaching a message of change defeated two extremely strong candidates preaching about their experience. In the end, voters said that while experience matters, change is what we needed. He will be armed with large majorities in both the House and the Senate, and he will have no excuse for failing to get his priorities through.
Howard Dean:After taking control of the DNC, the good Dr. Dean was roundly criticized by establishment Democrats for 'wasting' party resources in reliably Republican states. This year Dean was vindicated, as Democrats picked up House seats in Mississippi, Alabama, Arizona, and yes, even Idaho. Barack Obama essentially ran Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy during the primaries and made an amazing come-from-behind win over establishment Democrat Senator Hillary Clinton. In the General Election, Obama won solidly Republican Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, and even an electoral vote in Nebraska. When other Democrats would likely have pursued the traditional Battleground strategy of 5 or 6 states, Obama expanded the playing field using Dean's playbook.
Hillary Clinton:Senator Clinton never fails to amaze. After a hard-fought primary, the media speculated that Clinton would sit out the election and hope for an Obama loss. That would leave 2012 open for her. Instead, there were few who fought harder to get Senator Obama elected. She was an effective surrogate, especially in Pennsylvania and Florida, and she has only ensured her popularity in the Democratic Party. I imagine President Obama will be working very closely with the Senator from New York, especially on health care.
Roe v. Wade: With President Obama likely to appoint 3-4 Supreme Court Justices in his first term, Roe will be safe for another generation.
John McCain: After nearly bankrupting his campaign in 2007, McCain was counted out by most political observers who expected that Mitt Romney, who was leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, would get the nomination. An upset win in Iowa by Mike Huckabee followed by a McCain comeback in New Hampshire ensured that Romney wasn't the guy. McCain's narrow win in Florida sealed the deal for him. It was fights like that that gave McCain the nickname "Lazarus."
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels: Mitch Daniels survived the Democratic wave. He ran a campaign without a single negative advertisement that was aimed at the center of the electorate. And he scored an amazing 58% of the vote. He made it clear this was the last office he would run for and he treated the campaign like a job interview.
Marion County, IN Democratic Party: While I'm sure much of it had to do with the Campaign for Change presence in Marion County, Congressman Andre Carson and party chairman Ed Treacy should be credited for the enormous successes on Election Day, too. Andre got his voters out, and he won over 60% of the vote. That's something his grandmother never accomplished. Marion County, which was essentially 50/50 in 2004, went to a 65-39 margin in favor of Obama. Democrats held the county-wide offices and picked up two seats in the Indiana House. Let's hope the party can keep it together and reclaim the Mayor's office and City Council in 3 years.
Early Voting: So many people took advantage of early voting that it is likely to be expanded both in Indiana and in other states for future elections. Early voting led to shorter lines for most on Election Day.

Team Loser
John McCain: John McCain has the unfortunate honor of getting hammered by Bush twice. The first time was during the 2000 Republican primaries, after McCain won the New Hampshire primary by a huge margin and turned that race on its head. Bush and Rove aggressively attacked McCain, and the thing that killed him was the fliers circulated in South Carolina accusing McCain of fathering a black baby and including a picture of his adopted Bangladeshi daughter. That experience left McCain bitter and angry with Bush.
McCain became a fierce opponent of the Bush administration and was widely expected to leave the Republican Party in 2001 to caucus with the Democrats, but 9/11 changed the conversation. That leads us to the second time Bush beat McCain. McCain's decision to attach himself so closely to Bush on the Iraq War and to brag about voting with Bush "over 90% of the time" doomed him almost from the outset. George Bush is the least popular president in recent history, and for McCain to stand next to him and say 'this is my guy' was political suicide. Sarah Palin certainly didn't help him, either.
Sarah Palin: Despite being woefully unprepared for the presidency, the governor of a state smaller in population than Obama's Illinois State Senate district initially provided a boost to McCain's campaign. Until we realized just how unprepared she was. The hockey mom from Alaska who didn't know Africa was a continent and reads every newspaper in the world was the only one on either ticket to have a negative approval rating. Despite her claims that she's just a middle class gal, she spent hundreds of thousands of dollars from the RNC to cloth her and her family, and the highest paid staff members on the McCain campaign were her stylist and makeup artist. It will be interesting to watch what she does over the next few years to reinvent herself, and see whether she will be a major player in Republican politics or whether she will become the Republican version of Geraldine Ferraro.
Hillary Clinton: She had the institutional support. She had the money. She had the stature. She had a 40 point lead in mid-2007. She was the candidate of experience, the liberal hawk America needed to lift us out of the Bush era. She was the Democratic nominee-apparent. And she lost to a man who was state senator just 3 years before. Hillary Clinton's campaign was one of the worst-run in history, aside from perhaps John McCain's. In an election about change, her advisers steered her to be the status quo candidate and the "quasi incumbent." Her refusal to apologize for her Iraq vote left her vulnerable on that issue. Her campaign's 'February 5' strategy turned out to be the nail in its coffin, as they didn't compete in the caucus states or Potomac Primaries which allowed Obama to win 11 contests in a row and rack up an insurmountable delegate lead. I still believe it didn't have to end up this way, and had Hillary run from the start as the change candidate Obama would have gone nowhere. Still, competing to the last primary was ultimately good for Obama and had she not done that, Indiana and North Carolina would have stayed Republican this year.
The Bradley Effect: Also known as the 'Wilder Effect.' The theory was that white voters would lie to pollsters and say they would support a black candidate, and then vote against that candidate in private. This year, Obama received a higher percentage of the white vote than John Kerry and the Bradley Effect can now be debunked.
Congressional Republicans: In a 2-year period, Republicans have lost over 50 seats in the House and at least 12 in the Senate. They are a party in panic and have to figure out a way to stay relevant. The Republican Party is at risk of becoming a regional party based in the South, and instead of adopting a big-tent strategy (welcoming moderates and independents), they appear to be moving to a smaller right-wing stance with Indiana's Mike Pence and Virginia's Eric Cantor taking leadership roles in the next Congress.
Gay Marriage Prop 8 passes banning gay marriage in California. The only silver lining is that young people were the only group to vote against it, and they did so by a very large margin. The future will be a different place.
Jill Long Thompson: She's just not cut out for a leadership role. Her two statewide campaigns have resulted in total thrashings. The fact that many Democrats didn't even know they had a candidate in the race speaks to her lack of presence. She tried hard but she didn't have the resources and didn't have the electricity to cut through.
The Indiana Democratic Party: In a year when a Democrat takes Indiana's electoral votes, the party fails to win any statewide offices and only added one net seat to the Indiana House majority. The Party and Jill Long Thompson's public squabbles following the primary couldn't have helped, but it might be time for new blood at IDP headquarters.

Local Dominatrix Backs Adam Nelson for State Representative

Adam Nelson is a hard core Republican running for the state legislative seat currently held by David Orentlicher. The Indianapolis Star has endorsed Nelson's opponent, Democratic attorney Ed Delaney.


Over at Advance Indiana, Melyssa Donaghy (aka HFFT), attacked Ed Delaney as a "liar" and gave her implied support to "sweetheart" Adam Nelson. Donaghy of course is known for operating a bondage and discipline dungeon in her basement. The City of Indianapolis moved to shut that business down, along with other sexually related establishments.

Blogger HOOSIERS FOR FAIR TAX said...

Ed Delaney sent me a flyer months ago that he wanted to hear from people in his district and learn our concerns.

I called his office and emailed more than once. I still have not heard back.

As far as I'm concerned, he's a liar. If he's not going to listen to me BEFORE an election, he sure as hell won't hear me after the election.

He's a political insider elite.

Adam Nelson, on the other hand, is a sweetheart.

8:44 AM EST

Advance Indiana: Three Indianapolis House Districts Will Decide Fate Of Property Tax Caps

I have to think I'm not alone in wondering what brings HFFT to that conclusion. Was Mr. Nelson perhaps a client of hers? The good voters of the 86th district deserve to know. Does someone who pals around with a (former?) dominatrix have what it takes to represent the voters?

Call Adam Nelson and ask him about his relationship with Donaghy. Here are his contact details:

317-255-7728
adamnelson86@earthlink.net

Economy Sinking John McCain's Ship

When Fox News has McCain losing in a poll, you know it's a bad day to be the Republican nominee for President. According to the latest Fox News poll, McCain has dipped to 39%, with Barack Obama atracting 45% of voters.

This comes on the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Obama with a 9 point edge over the Republican, 52% to 43%. According to the poll,

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

The daily tracking polls are universal in showing Obama leads as well.

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48% to McCain's 42%

Gallup: Obama 47% to McCain's 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 49% to McCain's 47%

Research 2000: Obama 48% to McCain's 44%

But, but... the election isn't decided by the national vote, it's decided by the state votes. Yep. And a slew of newly released Marist polls show Obama leading in 5 of the top "battleground" states:

Iowa: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

Michigan: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

New Hampshire: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

Ohio: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

What is driving the McCain collapse? It's the economy, stupid. According to the ABC poll cited above, fully 50% of voters believe jobs and the economy are issue number one, and Obama has a 14% lead among those voters. Iraq and national defense are the areas where McCain has the advantage, but those issues are virtually off the radar.

There is both good news and bad news for each candidate in these polls. For Obama the good news is clear: the voters prefer him to McCain on the most important issues. The bad news for McCain is that he probably can't spend enough money trying to drag himself out of the economy hole (voters just don't trust him on this issue). The bad news for Obama is that while things are good for him now, something could easily happen in the next few weeks that shifts the focus back to McCain's area of strength.

If anything, the current economic crisis shows that the campaigns are all but irrelevant because they can't control the outside events which shape voter perception. A candidate can spend $10 Million on an ad buy and it gets completely overshadowed by a collapsing stock market or a terrorist attack.

This is going to be a long 5 weeks, but if conditions remain relatively static, this election is Barack Obama's to lose and he may even find a 60-seat majority waiting for him on January 20th.

$200 to Change Indiana

So what's the story?
This November, Hoosier voters will have the opportunity to change the face of state government. George Bush's former budget man Mitch Daniels is the current governor. He has sold off the state's infrastructure and sold out to big business. From daylight savings time to education to pollution to job creation, Mitch Daniels has been bad for Indiana.

The Democratic candidate is former Congresswoman and Clinton Undersecretary of Agriculture Jill Long Thompson. Long Thompson is committed to the middle class and has a sound plan for economic growth. She also has a plan to help Hoosier families get health insurance. And she represents history by being the first female governor in Indiana's history.

What is the state of the race?
Indiana is a strong Republican state, so this race would be difficult no matter who our candidate was. Mitch Daniels has the largest campaign war chest in Indiana history, and has been spending freely since February. Let's face it folks, Jill Long Thompson is the underdog and if she wins it will be a big upset.

But there is good news. The latest poll done for the Indianapolis Star by venerable pollster Ann Selzer (regarded by other pollsters as one of the best in the biz) shows the Democratic challenger within striking distance, and finds that Mitch Daniels is below the 50% mark:

Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels holds a four-point lead in his bid for a second term, including support from one in five voters who plan to back Democrat Barack Obama for president, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Daniels leads Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points.

Is the Governor's race the only important race?

No! Indiana Democrats have a fragile hold on the lower house of the Indiana legislature. With Barack Obama's historic field efforts in our state, their numbers are likely to expand, particularly in some of the Indianapolis-area districts that are currently represented by "moderate" Republicans.

Sadly, the Indiana State Senate is so gerrymandered that it is nearly impossible to capture this year.

Why should I care about Indiana?

In 2006, Indiana voters sent three Republican congressmen home, and replaced them with three Democrats, 10% of the total gains nationally that year. In Indiana, redistricting is controlled by the party that controls the governor's office and one house of the legislature. If the Republicans control redistricting, Indiana Democrats will lose between 3 and 4 seats in 2012.

What can I do to help?

As I mentioned before, the Obama campaign has an amazing field operation here, especially in the Indianapolis area. But while this is helpful, it is so important for our candidates for state legislature and governor have their own resources to get their own messages out.

My challenge is to raise $400, or $100 for each candidate on my Indiana for Change ActBlue fundraising page. I'm already almost halfway to that goal, and we need just over $200 to meet it. All the candidates share something in common. They are representing winnable districts (or in Jill's case, a winnable state). But all those districts are currently Republican-held and they need our help.

So please, stop by and contribute what you can.

Bonus

To show that I'm invested in this, I will match the first $5 of the first 10 donors to my page. Even a small amount like $5 can help a local candidate buy things like clipboards, copy paper, pens, etc.

We Hoosiers really appreciate your help!