Andre Carson, Mitch Daniels Cruising to Reelection

A new poll done by Research 2000 for CBS shows both Congressman Andre Carson and Governor Mitch Daniels cruising to large victories in their respective races next Tuesday.

Democratic Congressman Andre Carson is posting a 15 point margin against Republican social worker Gabrielle Campo, leading 53% to 38%. Carson is buoyed by near-universal support among black voters and a strong lead with independent voters. The only category Campo is leading other than Republicans is with white voters, where she has a 20-point edge.



Likewise, Governor Mitch Daniels leads former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson by 14 points, 54%-40%. Daniels leads among men and women, Republicans, Independents, and even takes 12% of Democratic voters. Most concerning for the Democrat are the numbers from Marion County, which show Daniels leading Long-Thompson by 8 in a county essential for a statewide Democratic victory. That's a 12 point swing downward for Long-Thompson since the last CBS poll in September. Of course we have to remember that during the last half of September and first half of October, JLT didn't even have ads on the air so it isn't shocking that her numbers cratered in Marion County. Daniels has run a positive campaign and has run some truly great advertisements. Jill was never able to cut through the clutter. To the right is one of MMM's more memorable campaign ads.

On the presidential front, the numbers tell the same story they did a month ago. Indiana is tight as a tick on a deer's behind. Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain are tied with 47% each. This is fueled in part by Obama's performance in Marion County, where he is leading McCain by 8 points in a county that was split 50/50 between Bush and Kerry four years ago.

Interestingly, the number of ticket splitters is the key to this. Back in May, I think most observers would have said the most likely ticket split is the one that usually happens in Indiana. People will vote for the Republican presidential nominee and the Democratic candidate for governor. This year, the anecdotal evidence points to the reverse. I can't count the number of Daniels/Obama yard sign combinations I've seen here on Indy's north side.

The economy is the issue that dominates. And Obama's latest ad reminds voters of what McCain has to offer on that front:



That is probably one of my favorite Obama ads of the season.

For you junkies out there, Sarah Palin is the only candidate who has a negative favorability rating. She is seen favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 48%. The other Pres/VP candidates have a favorability of +10 or more.

Whatever the final numbers on Tuesday, Indiana will be deep purple rather than crimson.

IN-Pres Tight as a Tick. IN-Gov Not So Much

A new survey from Public Policy Polling suggests the presidential race in Indiana is tight, with Senator Barack Obama holding a statistically insignificant lead over Senator John McCain, 48%-46%. 6% of voters are still undecided or prefer another candidate. 92% of voters are "firm" in their commitment, meaning there is a very small group of 'persuadable' voters. Not a bad place to be in a pre-Powell poll.

Obama is buoyed by strong support from Democrats and a 10-point margin among Independent voters. Obama is registering only 89% of black voters, which seems relatively low given the historic nature of his candidacy, considering John Kerry and Al Gore received similar support among black voters in 2004 and 2000, respectively.

Unfortunately, the numbers for Indiana Governor are grim. Mitch Daniels is leading Jill Long-Thompson by a staggering 21 points, 57%-36%. Daniels is winning 86% of Republicans, a large majority of Independents, and even 28% of Democrats. I think this could be very true. I realize this is anecdotal evidence, but I've talked to a few people around my age who are all Obama voters. Several of them are voting for Mitch Daniels. When I ask them why they would do such a thing, they say they have no reason not to and not ONCE could anyone even name the person running against Daniels. Some of these are educated people.

This poll even looks at the two other statewide races, for Attorney General and for Superintendent of Public Education. In the AG race, Democrat Linda Pence has a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Greg Zoeller, 42%-39%. Republican Tony Bennett is leading Democrat Richard Wood by 38%-36% (read that as a tie, too). The key in these races are the undecideds. This far down the ballot, there are always a lot of undecided voters and most likely the party that can get the most straight party voters will prevail.

So, some great news, some okay news, and some really bad news.