A new poll done by Research 2000 for CBS shows both Congressman Andre Carson and Governor Mitch Daniels cruising to large victories in their respective races next Tuesday.
Democratic Congressman Andre Carson is posting a 15 point margin against Republican social worker Gabrielle Campo, leading 53% to 38%. Carson is buoyed by near-universal support among black voters and a strong lead with independent voters. The only category Campo is leading other than Republicans is with white voters, where she has a 20-point edge.
Likewise, Governor Mitch Daniels leads former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson by 14 points, 54%-40%. Daniels leads among men and women, Republicans, Independents, and even takes 12% of Democratic voters. Most concerning for the Democrat are the numbers from Marion County, which show Daniels leading Long-Thompson by 8 in a county essential for a statewide Democratic victory. That's a 12 point swing downward for Long-Thompson since the last CBS poll in September. Of course we have to remember that during the last half of September and first half of October, JLT didn't even have ads on the air so it isn't shocking that her numbers cratered in Marion County. Daniels has run a positive campaign and has run some truly great advertisements. Jill was never able to cut through the clutter. To the right is one of MMM's more memorable campaign ads.
On the presidential front, the numbers tell the same story they did a month ago. Indiana is tight as a tick on a deer's behind. Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain are tied with 47% each. This is fueled in part by Obama's performance in Marion County, where he is leading McCain by 8 points in a county that was split 50/50 between Bush and Kerry four years ago.
Interestingly, the number of ticket splitters is the key to this. Back in May, I think most observers would have said the most likely ticket split is the one that usually happens in Indiana. People will vote for the Republican presidential nominee and the Democratic candidate for governor. This year, the anecdotal evidence points to the reverse. I can't count the number of Daniels/Obama yard sign combinations I've seen here on Indy's north side.
The economy is the issue that dominates. And Obama's latest ad reminds voters of what McCain has to offer on that front:
That is probably one of my favorite Obama ads of the season.
For you junkies out there, Sarah Palin is the only candidate who has a negative favorability rating. She is seen favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 48%. The other Pres/VP candidates have a favorability of +10 or more.
Whatever the final numbers on Tuesday, Indiana will be deep purple rather than crimson.
Showing posts with label Gabrielle Campo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gabrielle Campo. Show all posts
Friday, October 31, 2008
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Dear Congressman Carson: Please Debate Republican Campo
I made a very simple suggestion to Congressman Andre Carson in a blog post at Blue Indiana :
That simple suggestion prompted an angry response from one of Congressman Carson's staffers, who suggested that because Carson debated other opponents in his previous elections, and because the Congressman is "a little busy." She made a great point that Carson has been out in the community talking about the issues that matter, and that while Congress is in session he is busy doing the people's business. Note to Erin: I get that.
We have 6 weeks until Election Day, and I'm sure that one one day out of the next 50, the Congressman and Candidate Campo can find time to get on a stage together to talk about the issues side by side. For Carson, who has the advantage of a strongly Democratic district, incumbency, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in his campaign treasury, agreeing to a public forum with Ms. Campo would inocculate him against right-wing charges that he's afraid to debate or worse, too arrogant to debate.
In many cases, candidates running against incumbents or another candidate from the district's dominant political party have little campaign resources to speak of, and stand nearly zero chance of getting elected. A debate or forum is often the only chance the challenger has to get their voice heard. This certainly isn't the fault of Congressman Carson. He is simply playing the game by the rules. But he has a great opportunity to expand the rules, to be magnanimous in allowing Campo a place to make her (bad) case.
Unfortunately the Congressman's staff response that 'he's too busy' makes it clear he has little interest in enchancing the democratic nature of this race. He's already behaving like the entrenched incumbent he is destined to become.
Which gets to the last sentence of my post at Blue Indiana. Steve Buyer is an entrenched incumbent whose staff has said several times that he is "too busy" with his duties as Congressman to debate his opponent (in this case, Nels! Ackerson). Erin's point that Carson, unlike Buyer, has debated several times this year. My response is that he had to. Nobody knew who Andre Carson was before he ran for slating to succeed his grandmother, and nobody knew about his politics. He had to go to forums and talk about what he stood for. It simply wasn't an option for him to duck those debates. But for him to have no plans to debate his first General Election Republican challenger certainly puts him on the Buyer track.
We Democrats get upset when entrenched politicians from the other side refuse to debate our candidates, even our long shot candidates like Nels Ackerson and Barry Welsh. But we are far too willing to accept it when entrenched politicians on our side refuse to debate their opponents. I'm not a fan of this double standard. While I think all our candidates should debate their Republican opponents at least once before Election Day, Congressman Carson is MY representative and thus this post is directed at him and his campaign.
There is still time for things to change. I know that Jesus MCC, the church that provided a forum for the Special Election, would be happy to host another forum. I'm sure the Urban League would be happy to oblige. The campaign just has to be willing to bear with it. When Steve Buyer decided that even he could debate his Democratic opponent, it showed that miracles really can happen.
I'm reading in several places that Andre Carson's campaign has refused to organize a debate with the Republican nominee, Gabrielle Campo. Why is this? We know Andre is on the right side of the issues, but the voters of the 7th District deserve to at least compare the two candidates.
We certainly don't want Andre to become the Democratic Steve Buyer, do we?
That simple suggestion prompted an angry response from one of Congressman Carson's staffers, who suggested that because Carson debated other opponents in his previous elections, and because the Congressman is "a little busy." She made a great point that Carson has been out in the community talking about the issues that matter, and that while Congress is in session he is busy doing the people's business. Note to Erin: I get that.
We have 6 weeks until Election Day, and I'm sure that one one day out of the next 50, the Congressman and Candidate Campo can find time to get on a stage together to talk about the issues side by side. For Carson, who has the advantage of a strongly Democratic district, incumbency, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in his campaign treasury, agreeing to a public forum with Ms. Campo would inocculate him against right-wing charges that he's afraid to debate or worse, too arrogant to debate.
In many cases, candidates running against incumbents or another candidate from the district's dominant political party have little campaign resources to speak of, and stand nearly zero chance of getting elected. A debate or forum is often the only chance the challenger has to get their voice heard. This certainly isn't the fault of Congressman Carson. He is simply playing the game by the rules. But he has a great opportunity to expand the rules, to be magnanimous in allowing Campo a place to make her (bad) case.
Unfortunately the Congressman's staff response that 'he's too busy' makes it clear he has little interest in enchancing the democratic nature of this race. He's already behaving like the entrenched incumbent he is destined to become.
Which gets to the last sentence of my post at Blue Indiana. Steve Buyer is an entrenched incumbent whose staff has said several times that he is "too busy" with his duties as Congressman to debate his opponent (in this case, Nels! Ackerson). Erin's point that Carson, unlike Buyer, has debated several times this year. My response is that he had to. Nobody knew who Andre Carson was before he ran for slating to succeed his grandmother, and nobody knew about his politics. He had to go to forums and talk about what he stood for. It simply wasn't an option for him to duck those debates. But for him to have no plans to debate his first General Election Republican challenger certainly puts him on the Buyer track.
We Democrats get upset when entrenched politicians from the other side refuse to debate our candidates, even our long shot candidates like Nels Ackerson and Barry Welsh. But we are far too willing to accept it when entrenched politicians on our side refuse to debate their opponents. I'm not a fan of this double standard. While I think all our candidates should debate their Republican opponents at least once before Election Day, Congressman Carson is MY representative and thus this post is directed at him and his campaign.
There is still time for things to change. I know that Jesus MCC, the church that provided a forum for the Special Election, would be happy to host another forum. I'm sure the Urban League would be happy to oblige. The campaign just has to be willing to bear with it. When Steve Buyer decided that even he could debate his Democratic opponent, it showed that miracles really can happen.
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