A new poll done by Research 2000 for CBS shows both Congressman Andre Carson and Governor Mitch Daniels cruising to large victories in their respective races next Tuesday.
Democratic Congressman Andre Carson is posting a 15 point margin against Republican social worker Gabrielle Campo, leading 53% to 38%. Carson is buoyed by near-universal support among black voters and a strong lead with independent voters. The only category Campo is leading other than Republicans is with white voters, where she has a 20-point edge.
Likewise, Governor Mitch Daniels leads former Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long-Thompson by 14 points, 54%-40%. Daniels leads among men and women, Republicans, Independents, and even takes 12% of Democratic voters. Most concerning for the Democrat are the numbers from Marion County, which show Daniels leading Long-Thompson by 8 in a county essential for a statewide Democratic victory. That's a 12 point swing downward for Long-Thompson since the last CBS poll in September. Of course we have to remember that during the last half of September and first half of October, JLT didn't even have ads on the air so it isn't shocking that her numbers cratered in Marion County. Daniels has run a positive campaign and has run some truly great advertisements. Jill was never able to cut through the clutter. To the right is one of MMM's more memorable campaign ads.
On the presidential front, the numbers tell the same story they did a month ago. Indiana is tight as a tick on a deer's behind. Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain are tied with 47% each. This is fueled in part by Obama's performance in Marion County, where he is leading McCain by 8 points in a county that was split 50/50 between Bush and Kerry four years ago.
Interestingly, the number of ticket splitters is the key to this. Back in May, I think most observers would have said the most likely ticket split is the one that usually happens in Indiana. People will vote for the Republican presidential nominee and the Democratic candidate for governor. This year, the anecdotal evidence points to the reverse. I can't count the number of Daniels/Obama yard sign combinations I've seen here on Indy's north side.
The economy is the issue that dominates. And Obama's latest ad reminds voters of what McCain has to offer on that front:
That is probably one of my favorite Obama ads of the season.
For you junkies out there, Sarah Palin is the only candidate who has a negative favorability rating. She is seen favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 48%. The other Pres/VP candidates have a favorability of +10 or more.
Whatever the final numbers on Tuesday, Indiana will be deep purple rather than crimson.
Showing posts with label IN-Gov. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IN-Gov. Show all posts
Friday, October 31, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
IN-Pres Tight as a Tick. IN-Gov Not So Much
A new survey from Public Policy Polling suggests the presidential race in Indiana is tight, with Senator Barack Obama holding a statistically insignificant lead over Senator John McCain, 48%-46%. 6% of voters are still undecided or prefer another candidate. 92% of voters are "firm" in their commitment, meaning there is a very small group of 'persuadable' voters. Not a bad place to be in a pre-Powell poll.
Obama is buoyed by strong support from Democrats and a 10-point margin among Independent voters. Obama is registering only 89% of black voters, which seems relatively low given the historic nature of his candidacy, considering John Kerry and Al Gore received similar support among black voters in 2004 and 2000, respectively.
Unfortunately, the numbers for Indiana Governor are grim. Mitch Daniels is leading Jill Long-Thompson by a staggering 21 points, 57%-36%. Daniels is winning 86% of Republicans, a large majority of Independents, and even 28% of Democrats. I think this could be very true. I realize this is anecdotal evidence, but I've talked to a few people around my age who are all Obama voters. Several of them are voting for Mitch Daniels. When I ask them why they would do such a thing, they say they have no reason not to and not ONCE could anyone even name the person running against Daniels. Some of these are educated people.
This poll even looks at the two other statewide races, for Attorney General and for Superintendent of Public Education. In the AG race, Democrat Linda Pence has a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Greg Zoeller, 42%-39%. Republican Tony Bennett is leading Democrat Richard Wood by 38%-36% (read that as a tie, too). The key in these races are the undecideds. This far down the ballot, there are always a lot of undecided voters and most likely the party that can get the most straight party voters will prevail.
So, some great news, some okay news, and some really bad news.
Obama is buoyed by strong support from Democrats and a 10-point margin among Independent voters. Obama is registering only 89% of black voters, which seems relatively low given the historic nature of his candidacy, considering John Kerry and Al Gore received similar support among black voters in 2004 and 2000, respectively.
Unfortunately, the numbers for Indiana Governor are grim. Mitch Daniels is leading Jill Long-Thompson by a staggering 21 points, 57%-36%. Daniels is winning 86% of Republicans, a large majority of Independents, and even 28% of Democrats. I think this could be very true. I realize this is anecdotal evidence, but I've talked to a few people around my age who are all Obama voters. Several of them are voting for Mitch Daniels. When I ask them why they would do such a thing, they say they have no reason not to and not ONCE could anyone even name the person running against Daniels. Some of these are educated people.
This poll even looks at the two other statewide races, for Attorney General and for Superintendent of Public Education. In the AG race, Democrat Linda Pence has a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Greg Zoeller, 42%-39%. Republican Tony Bennett is leading Democrat Richard Wood by 38%-36% (read that as a tie, too). The key in these races are the undecideds. This far down the ballot, there are always a lot of undecided voters and most likely the party that can get the most straight party voters will prevail.
So, some great news, some okay news, and some really bad news.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
IN Gov Race: Upset in the Making?
Last month, Jill Long Thompson's campaign for Indiana governor was virtually written off by most serious observers of politics. She pulled her ads, shut down field operations, spent time campaigning in previously "safe" areas, and has been virtually invisible in most of the state for the past three weeks.
The reason she took her ads down, she said, was because they were working so well that they achieved what they intended them to do. The reason they closed down field operations, she said, was because nobody anticipated that the Obama campaign would have such a strong presence in the state. Her fundraising is also going "strongly," though few major contributions have been reported recently.
Frankly, what I saw was a campaign that couldn't afford the ads, didn't have the funds or volunteers to sustain a field operation, and a campaign that is no longer getting the significant fundraising support support from groups like EMILY's List. All the while, Mitch Daniels, the corporate stooge intent upon selling our state to the lowest bidder, has been able to create memorable, folksy, positive advertisements.
The Pollster.com "poll of polls" shows the race trending to a blowout for Mitch Daniels, with JLT averaging in the mid-30's and Daniels averaging in the low-50's. The last poll to show Jill leading Daniels is a Down's Center poll from April which showed a 3 point lead.
Look at the information above, most good Democrats would ask "Is there hope?" Well, if two recent polls suggest that there is. A poll for the Indianapolis Star had JLT within striking distance of Daniels, who led 46%-42%. And now, a second independent poll from Research 2000 shows Jill in a statistical tie with Daniels:
The most dangerous opponent in politics is the underestimated opponent. Jill Long Thompson is very underestimated at this point in the campaign. Republicans might not feel as threatened as they would if Jill were leading, and so the "stop Jill" energy isn't really strong at this point.
We need to be clear that JLT, like any challenger, is an underdog in this race. But the pieces could be in place for a stunning upset that will have Chris Cilizza eating crow.
The reason she took her ads down, she said, was because they were working so well that they achieved what they intended them to do. The reason they closed down field operations, she said, was because nobody anticipated that the Obama campaign would have such a strong presence in the state. Her fundraising is also going "strongly," though few major contributions have been reported recently.
Frankly, what I saw was a campaign that couldn't afford the ads, didn't have the funds or volunteers to sustain a field operation, and a campaign that is no longer getting the significant fundraising support support from groups like EMILY's List. All the while, Mitch Daniels, the corporate stooge intent upon selling our state to the lowest bidder, has been able to create memorable, folksy, positive advertisements.
The Pollster.com "poll of polls" shows the race trending to a blowout for Mitch Daniels, with JLT averaging in the mid-30's and Daniels averaging in the low-50's. The last poll to show Jill leading Daniels is a Down's Center poll from April which showed a 3 point lead.
Look at the information above, most good Democrats would ask "Is there hope?" Well, if two recent polls suggest that there is. A poll for the Indianapolis Star had JLT within striking distance of Daniels, who led 46%-42%. And now, a second independent poll from Research 2000 shows Jill in a statistical tie with Daniels:
Research 2000
600 Likely Voters -- MoE +/- 4%
Sept. 28-30
47% - Mitch Daniels
46% - Jill Long Thompson
3% - Other
4% - Undecided
The most dangerous opponent in politics is the underestimated opponent. Jill Long Thompson is very underestimated at this point in the campaign. Republicans might not feel as threatened as they would if Jill were leading, and so the "stop Jill" energy isn't really strong at this point.
We need to be clear that JLT, like any challenger, is an underdog in this race. But the pieces could be in place for a stunning upset that will have Chris Cilizza eating crow.
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