Economy Sinking John McCain's Ship

When Fox News has McCain losing in a poll, you know it's a bad day to be the Republican nominee for President. According to the latest Fox News poll, McCain has dipped to 39%, with Barack Obama atracting 45% of voters.

This comes on the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Obama with a 9 point edge over the Republican, 52% to 43%. According to the poll,

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

The daily tracking polls are universal in showing Obama leads as well.

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48% to McCain's 42%

Gallup: Obama 47% to McCain's 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 49% to McCain's 47%

Research 2000: Obama 48% to McCain's 44%

But, but... the election isn't decided by the national vote, it's decided by the state votes. Yep. And a slew of newly released Marist polls show Obama leading in 5 of the top "battleground" states:

Iowa: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

Michigan: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

New Hampshire: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

Ohio: Obama 47%, McCain 45%

Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

What is driving the McCain collapse? It's the economy, stupid. According to the ABC poll cited above, fully 50% of voters believe jobs and the economy are issue number one, and Obama has a 14% lead among those voters. Iraq and national defense are the areas where McCain has the advantage, but those issues are virtually off the radar.

There is both good news and bad news for each candidate in these polls. For Obama the good news is clear: the voters prefer him to McCain on the most important issues. The bad news for McCain is that he probably can't spend enough money trying to drag himself out of the economy hole (voters just don't trust him on this issue). The bad news for Obama is that while things are good for him now, something could easily happen in the next few weeks that shifts the focus back to McCain's area of strength.

If anything, the current economic crisis shows that the campaigns are all but irrelevant because they can't control the outside events which shape voter perception. A candidate can spend $10 Million on an ad buy and it gets completely overshadowed by a collapsing stock market or a terrorist attack.

This is going to be a long 5 weeks, but if conditions remain relatively static, this election is Barack Obama's to lose and he may even find a 60-seat majority waiting for him on January 20th.

$200 to Change Indiana

So what's the story?
This November, Hoosier voters will have the opportunity to change the face of state government. George Bush's former budget man Mitch Daniels is the current governor. He has sold off the state's infrastructure and sold out to big business. From daylight savings time to education to pollution to job creation, Mitch Daniels has been bad for Indiana.

The Democratic candidate is former Congresswoman and Clinton Undersecretary of Agriculture Jill Long Thompson. Long Thompson is committed to the middle class and has a sound plan for economic growth. She also has a plan to help Hoosier families get health insurance. And she represents history by being the first female governor in Indiana's history.

What is the state of the race?
Indiana is a strong Republican state, so this race would be difficult no matter who our candidate was. Mitch Daniels has the largest campaign war chest in Indiana history, and has been spending freely since February. Let's face it folks, Jill Long Thompson is the underdog and if she wins it will be a big upset.

But there is good news. The latest poll done for the Indianapolis Star by venerable pollster Ann Selzer (regarded by other pollsters as one of the best in the biz) shows the Democratic challenger within striking distance, and finds that Mitch Daniels is below the 50% mark:

Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels holds a four-point lead in his bid for a second term, including support from one in five voters who plan to back Democrat Barack Obama for president, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

Daniels leads Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson 46 percent to 42 percent. The poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points.

Is the Governor's race the only important race?

No! Indiana Democrats have a fragile hold on the lower house of the Indiana legislature. With Barack Obama's historic field efforts in our state, their numbers are likely to expand, particularly in some of the Indianapolis-area districts that are currently represented by "moderate" Republicans.

Sadly, the Indiana State Senate is so gerrymandered that it is nearly impossible to capture this year.

Why should I care about Indiana?

In 2006, Indiana voters sent three Republican congressmen home, and replaced them with three Democrats, 10% of the total gains nationally that year. In Indiana, redistricting is controlled by the party that controls the governor's office and one house of the legislature. If the Republicans control redistricting, Indiana Democrats will lose between 3 and 4 seats in 2012.

What can I do to help?

As I mentioned before, the Obama campaign has an amazing field operation here, especially in the Indianapolis area. But while this is helpful, it is so important for our candidates for state legislature and governor have their own resources to get their own messages out.

My challenge is to raise $400, or $100 for each candidate on my Indiana for Change ActBlue fundraising page. I'm already almost halfway to that goal, and we need just over $200 to meet it. All the candidates share something in common. They are representing winnable districts (or in Jill's case, a winnable state). But all those districts are currently Republican-held and they need our help.

So please, stop by and contribute what you can.

Bonus

To show that I'm invested in this, I will match the first $5 of the first 10 donors to my page. Even a small amount like $5 can help a local candidate buy things like clipboards, copy paper, pens, etc.

We Hoosiers really appreciate your help!

Dear Congressman Carson: Please Debate Republican Campo

I made a very simple suggestion to Congressman Andre Carson in a blog post at Blue Indiana :

I'm reading in several places that Andre Carson's campaign has refused to organize a debate with the Republican nominee, Gabrielle Campo. Why is this? We know Andre is on the right side of the issues, but the voters of the 7th District deserve to at least compare the two candidates.

We certainly don't want Andre to become the Democratic Steve Buyer, do we?

That simple suggestion prompted an angry response from one of Congressman Carson's staffers, who suggested that because Carson debated other opponents in his previous elections, and because the Congressman is "a little busy." She made a great point that Carson has been out in the community talking about the issues that matter, and that while Congress is in session he is busy doing the people's business. Note to Erin: I get that.

We have 6 weeks until Election Day, and I'm sure that one one day out of the next 50, the Congressman and Candidate Campo can find time to get on a stage together to talk about the issues side by side. For Carson, who has the advantage of a strongly Democratic district, incumbency, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in his campaign treasury, agreeing to a public forum with Ms. Campo would inocculate him against right-wing charges that he's afraid to debate or worse, too arrogant to debate.

In many cases, candidates running against incumbents or another candidate from the district's dominant political party have little campaign resources to speak of, and stand nearly zero chance of getting elected. A debate or forum is often the only chance the challenger has to get their voice heard. This certainly isn't the fault of Congressman Carson. He is simply playing the game by the rules. But he has a great opportunity to expand the rules, to be magnanimous in allowing Campo a place to make her (bad) case.

Unfortunately the Congressman's staff response that 'he's too busy' makes it clear he has little interest in enchancing the democratic nature of this race. He's already behaving like the entrenched incumbent he is destined to become.

Which gets to the last sentence of my post at Blue Indiana. Steve Buyer is an entrenched incumbent whose staff has said several times that he is "too busy" with his duties as Congressman to debate his opponent (in this case, Nels! Ackerson). Erin's point that Carson, unlike Buyer, has debated several times this year. My response is that he had to. Nobody knew who Andre Carson was before he ran for slating to succeed his grandmother, and nobody knew about his politics. He had to go to forums and talk about what he stood for. It simply wasn't an option for him to duck those debates. But for him to have no plans to debate his first General Election Republican challenger certainly puts him on the Buyer track.

We Democrats get upset when entrenched politicians from the other side refuse to debate our candidates, even our long shot candidates like Nels Ackerson and Barry Welsh. But we are far too willing to accept it when entrenched politicians on our side refuse to debate their opponents. I'm not a fan of this double standard. While I think all our candidates should debate their Republican opponents at least once before Election Day, Congressman Carson is MY representative and thus this post is directed at him and his campaign.

There is still time for things to change. I know that Jesus MCC, the church that provided a forum for the Special Election, would be happy to host another forum. I'm sure the Urban League would be happy to oblige. The campaign just has to be willing to bear with it. When Steve Buyer decided that even he could debate his Democratic opponent, it showed that miracles really can happen.

In the Beginning...

Kos created the orange and the white, and the earth was without blogs, and void of a sphere of left-wing influence to counter the darkness that was right wing talk radio...

Okay, enough of the biblical shtick. Daily Kos was the very first blog I read way back during the days of Howard Dean's upstart run for the Presidency back in the Spring of 2003. I lurked and eventually posted under a now-banned user name for a period before drifting over to MyDD, a smaller, smarter, more user-friendly blog in 2005. Starting at the end of 2006 I picked up the pseudonym Vox Populi and started my tenure at MyDD as one of the most prominent promoters of John Edwards' presidential run (thankfully my guy didn't become the nominee). During 2007, I discovered a small website called Blue Indiana, where late that year our dear Wilson dubbed me "Vox Republicani" for my criticism of the Carsons. Shortly after Andre Carson became our Congressman I posted a single post on the now-defunct Tyrion's Point.

I love Blue Indiana. Thomas is one smart cookie. In addition to remaining a poster there, however, I've decided to go out on my own for a trial run (hence the free and easy-to-use Blogger account). Hoosier Progressive is the name of the blog, and advancing progressive ideas, cultural issues and candidates is the agenda.

Of course I'll bash Republicans and their allies when warranted. Which will probably be often. While I expect to find very minimal readership, I hope those of us who do visit here are able to enjoy each other's company for a long time to come.

Sincerely,

Vox Populi